There are solid arguments supporting a harder landing scenario than markets are currently anticipating In the most recent investor survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 75% of those polled see a soft landing or no landing as the most plausible outcome for the US economy. This is a 10% increase on the previous month…
Bond markets are preparing for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates despite falling inflation, writes Cherry Reynard The bond markets have been experiencing a turbulent patch. A range of factors have collided to create this disruption, including an adjustment to the ‘higher for longer’ narrative from central banks, a deluge of supply and the tentative withdrawal of…
Have inflationary pressures eased sufficiently for central banks to start cutting interest rates? Cherry Reynard takes a closer look In recent days, both the US Federal Reserve and – more surprisingly – the Bank of England have chosen to leave interest rates on hold. While both central banks have issued stern words about the need for caution and said…
The economies of Europe have proved a drag on worldwide economic growth, according to new work from the OECD. The organisation’s Interim Report September 2023: Confronting Inflation and Low Growth found global GDP advanced at an annualised pace of 3.2% in the first half of the year. While growth was strong in the US and…
Eurozone interest rates could remain at restrictive levels for “quite some time” – by Lauren Hardy The European Central Bank’s decision to hike rates for the 10th consecutive time today (14 September) could tip the EU “further into recessionary territory”, according to some investment professionals, who warn the bloc’s financial squeeze could intensify in Q4 2023…
Following the expansion of the BRICS group, Sarah Godfrey looks at which constituents offer the best opportunities Last month saw the 15th BRICS summit take place in Johannesburg. At the meeting, the five members of the group – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – announced that they were inviting six more countries – Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran,…
Are bonds a good or bad investment in the current environment? Sarah Godfrey takes a closer look Bond yields can be a real head-scratcher for investors. Rising yields are a function of falling prices; falling prices usually mean an asset is out of favour, yet higher bond yields signal better returns for those who buy…
Is the probability distribution of returns different?
Rising interest rates, widening discounts and fixed income inflows have bruised assets
Three major property developers in Germany have gone into insolvency in the space of two months. According to reports from Berlin, Centrum Group, Development Partner and Euroboden have all begun to declare bankruptcy in recent weeks due to financial problems caused by a constraint on the nation’s property markets. A report from Reuters suggested Euroboden…
An S&P Global Market Intelligence suggests so
There is a question over whether spreads adequately reflect the outlook for the global economy
