Will bumpy inflation figures defer the interest rate cuts markets crave?
The path towards a target of 2% is proving more turbulent than many investors had expected
Cherry Reynard
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What do the conflicting signals of the bond market mean for investors?
Valuations across some parts of the credit market could look stretched
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Can M&A and buybacks breathe life into UK market?
Both buybacks and M&A should help realise value in UK shares, boosting prices and giving investors another reason to consider the UK stockmarket Not only does M&A activity appear to be picking up, with a high-profile bid for UK electronics retailer Currys, but the scale of company buybacks continues to accelerate. If it goes well,…
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What is driving emerging market returns in 2024?
Emerging market growth is becoming increasingly dependent on fundamentals Emerging markets have never been homogenous, but in 2023 their fortunes diverged more than ever before. On the one hand was China, where stockmarkets slumped for a third consecutive year. On the other was India, Latin America and Taiwan, where punchy economic growth was reflected in…
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Will inflation fall enough for ‘year of the bond’?
Are there longer-term risks to the seemingly benign inflation picture? If 2024 is to be the ‘year of the bond’, inflation has to fall. The assumptions around inflation have had a wobble since the start of the year, as the US CPI reading for December came in ahead of expectations, and economic growth continues to…
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Will healthcare overtake AI as top theme for 2024?
Healthcare is a sector with a lot going on, writes Cherry Reynard, and some of its potential appears unappreciated by investors If AI was the dominant theme in 2023, healthcare might snap at its heels in 2024. Healthcare has often been characterised as dull and defensive, but breakthroughs on obesity drugs, on Alzheimer’s treatment and…
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Will markets ignore busiest election year in history?
It is tough to pick the resulting market outcome from any election, writes Cherry Reynard 2024’s calendar of elections kicked off with the Taiwanese election, which immediately careered into controversy. Yet markets appear to be untroubled by any potential escalation in geopolitical tensions it may bring about. Is this a sign of things to come,…
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Record US debt: Will Fed consider cutting interest rates?
Democrats and Republicans may have reached agreement on a spending deal but ‘unsustainable’ levels of debt continue to be a cause for concern With another funding deadline looming, the Democrats and Republicans have reached a $1.66trn deal on US spending. This averts another potentially disruptive shut-down. Nevertheless, the level of US government debt remains a…
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Will frontier markets benefit from deglobalisation?
For some time, it has been clear the baton of economic growth would pass from China, but it was not always clear who would carry it forward While interest rates and inflation have been the driving forces for markets in 2023, in the longer term, the shift in the geopolitical landscape may prove more significant.…
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Should markets be pricing an economic hard landing?
There are solid arguments supporting a harder landing scenario than markets are currently anticipating In the most recent investor survey from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, 75% of those polled see a soft landing or no landing as the most plausible outcome for the US economy. This is a 10% increase on the previous month…
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Is investors’ love affair with tech giants cooling?
Following a lacklustre set of Q3 results, are the ‘Magnificent Seven’ and others finally losing their sheen? The recent round of technology results has revealed a growing gap between expectation and reality. Although most of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ squeaked ahead of analyst forecasts, few could deliver on the lofty hopes built into share prices, on…
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Could thriving US economy have an inflationary sting in its tail?
The pace of US consumer spending looks set to slow down over the medium-to-long term, writes Cherry Reynard The US economy turned in an astonishing performance for the third quarter, growing at an annualised rate of 4.9% between July and September. Financial markets aren’t sure whether to be happy or alarmed at the pace of…