FRASER LUNDIE
HEAD OF CREDIT
FEDERATED HERMES
Score prediction: SCOTLAND 1 – CZECH REPUBLIC 0
INVESTMENT INSIGHT:
The Tartan Army enters the Euros armed with renewed hope following a successful qualifying campaign and a squad with significant potential. Back home, the energy industry is also entering a period of hope and transition. With the accelerating move away from fossil fuels and a dwindling oil and gas reserve base in the North Sea, there is ample political and societal pressure to embrace the movement to renewable energy.
This move will likely need to be bigger and faster than currently planned. While projects such as that announced at Leith docks are to be welcomed, Scotland’s employment and tax purse will be pressured by the job losses linked to the North Sea wind down, whilst nuclear power closures at Hunterston and Torness will only stretch the supply at a time when electricity demand continues to grow exponentially, driven by electric vehicles and gas central heating replacement.
While these problems are felt globally – as highlighted in the new report from International Energy Agency concluding that spending on clean energy transitions needs to accelerate much more rapidly to meet climate goals – the risks to the Scottish economy are heightened by these supply and demand idiosyncrasies.
However, the Scots are a highly resourceful bunch with a proud history of invention. The opportunities in innovation are plentiful, particularly in areas like marine energy where Scotland is a leader both in University education and research as well as in industry, where notable advancement has occurred in tidal turbine technology.
If Scotland can be committed strategically, be innovative, fearless and carry some luck they will win on the pitch and enjoy a successful energy transition to the benefit of their economy, society and the environment. Here’s to all the above!
EELCO UBBELS
CONSULTANT
ALPHA RESEARCH
Score prediction: SCOTLAND 1 – CZECH REPUBLIC 1
INVESTMENT INSIGHT:
While we are talking about Euro 2021, this match will be between two countries with their own currency.
The best-known Czech company is Skoda: you see their cars all over Europe. Skoda is doing well, according to their latest press release: “ŠKODA AUTO increased its global deliveries to customers by 7.2% to 249,600 vehicles from January to March 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.”
The link between fund selection and football is quantitative analysis. Looking at the track record of the Czech Republic, we see they are higher in the country ranking than Scotland. The countries have played each other nine times. The Czech Republic won four times, lost four times and one time ended in a draw. Looking to the most recent matches, the Scots have won the past three.
Next to quantitative analysis, investors look at what the market expects. In football, we have bookmakers, and these figures indicate a 37% chance of the Czech Republic winning and a 33% chance of Scotland winning.
In short, this will be the first match for these two countries and the differences are only slight. Traditionally, this will be a draw.
A few wise words of John Cruyff: “There are many people who can say a football team is playing badly; there are a few people who can say why they play badly and there are only a few people who can say what needs to be done to make them play better.”
Football is a team sport and I wish coach Jaroslav Šilhavýwens good luck with this first match.
