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Two football fanatical nations take to the pitch; with England seeking vindication and Italy looking to upset the bookmakers one more time




Score prediction: ENGLAND 3 – ITALY 2 (in AET)


Readers have noted my score predictions have been punchy – I have my colleague James Smith’s advice to thank for that – and today’s is no different.

We’re so familiar with heartache – think of those near misses at the World Cups of 1990 and 2018, as well as the familiar penalty woes at Euro 96 – so why am I so optimistic?

Indeed, a quick glance at the UEFA Euro stats page shows Italy have two goals on us, having scored 12 to our 10 in the tournament. The team also established a new record this tournament for the longest winning sequence in the UEFA European Championship, after securing their 15th consecutive victory in the competition against Belgium.

Well, it’s England’s first men’s international final since 1966, and we’ve ended our ITV and our semi-final curse, so some might say there is more heart than head in the prediction.

You don’t, however, have to be as emotional to favour UK equities, which still look cheap even after the strong run so far this year. We continue to own growth and value funds investing in the UK, tilting between these to take advantage of opportunities.

All that remains is to say ‘Jules Rimet still gleaming, Fifty five years of hurt, Never stopped me dreaming’.




Score prediction: ENGLAND 0 – ITALY 2


We are at the final step. From the football perspective we have had a great path, fighiting and winning against  Belgium (number 1 in the Fifa ranking), suffering against Spain (number 6 in the Fifa ranking), and we will play the final against England (number 4).  In each match we arrived without the favour of the bookmakers and reversed the result.

I see similarities with Italy in general, and with its financial markets. We don’t have, per general opinion, a good ranking position, but then if we look at data we were able to be first in the vaccination campain in Europe even if we started with some delay and some organisational lack, as usual.

We have seen flows in Italy generally only on BTPs, as only alternative generating yield, but we have plenty of corporate both IG and HY, generating yield and diversified in sectors. We finally have an incisive prime minister that works to recover the lack of reforms that Europe requests and we have the unique opportunity to generate a virtous environment of investments in green technology where we are in a favorable place.

Lastly we are entering into the summer season, and as other beautiful countries in europes we work to garantee a right mix between leisure and safety applying few restrictions to ensure that covid – Delta won’t ruin the vacation. This is a crucial sector for Italy and the reopening will help the recovery.



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