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bilbao delegates bearish on gold

Fund selectors in Bilbao expect further declines in the gold price


The gold price suffered its steepest falls since the 1980s during the past seven days, including a decline on Monday of about $100 (per troy ounce) to $1,350. While the precious metal has since regained some ground, it remains substantially below its August 2011 peak of $1,900.

Almost half of Expert Investor Spain delegates – who comprised fund selectors from pension plans, private banks and family offices, as well as wealth managers and IFAs – forecast that the gold price would continue to fall over the following 12 months, and just 20% predicted a rise (see chart).alt=''

As a result, when asked how they planned to adjust their gold exposure during the next year, just 8% expected to increase their allocation and more than a quarter planned cuts. About half of delegates were not using gold in their portfolios.

Despite a gain of about 20% in the Nikkei 225 Index during the first quarter of 2013, there was a similarly low level of appetite for Japanese equities. This is in contrast with extreme fund manager bullishness on this market which – according to the Expert Investor Europe Manager Sentiment Survey for March – is at its highest level since the end of 2005.

Platinum members can view a full breakdown of the Expert Investor Spain delegate voting here, and the results of the latest Expert Investor Europe Manager Sentiment Survey here.